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HELIOS Phase II Proposal — DRAFT SCAFFOLD

Status: SCAFFOLD ONLY — section headers + key-phrasing carry-over + cross-link placeholders. The operator writes actual Phase II copy. Submission deadline: TBD — depends on the NASA Phase II solicitation cycle (subtopic SPWX.1.S26A continuation, when announced). Last refreshed: 2026-05-18 (initial scaffold). Template source: submitted Phase I proposal at /home/twawe/577i-Projects/SBIR Working Folder/NASA/HELIOS_NASA_SBIR_PhaseI_Proposal.docx (locked); plaintext extraction at /home/twawe/.claude/projects/-home-twawe-577i-Projects-SBIR-Working-Folder-NASA/774be7f5-a036-4889-8afe-4c087e05097c/tool-results/b0awntn99.txt.

About this scaffold. The Phase I §1-8 structure is preserved verbatim. Each section flags either "carry forward from Phase I, refresh dates and TRL claims" or "PHASE II ADJUSTMENT — operator action" with a specific cross-reference to where the new content originates. The four required Phase II adjustments per the dispatch spec are flagged in §1.3, §2, §3.3, and §4.3.

NASA SBIR Phase II proposal — cover

  • Subtopic: SPWX.1.S26A — Advanced Data-Driven Applications for Space Weather R2O2R (Phase II continuation)
  • Title: HELIOS — Heliophysics-Enhanced Location Integrity and Operations System
  • Subtitle: Calibrated Space-Weather Decision Intelligence for NASA Mission Operations and U.S. Precision Agriculture — Phase II Operational Prototype
  • Submitted by: 577 Industries Inc. — Columbus, Ohio
  • Principal Investigator: Thomas Waweru
  • Lead Center: MSFC
  • Participating Centers: GSFC · JSC · ARC · LaRC
  • Phase I award reference: TBD (insert award number if Phase I lands)
  • Phase II proposed period of performance: 24 months
  • Phase II proposed price: TBD (consistent with NASA SBIR Phase II ceiling)

Technical Abstract

Carry forward from Phase I abstract. Refresh: (a) replace "Phase I develops and validates two tightly scoped vertical slices" with "Phase II advances HELIOS to TRL 5-6 operational prototype"; (b) cite Phase I deliverables by URL (see evidence-package.md §2); © update the Gannon paragraph to cite v2 real-SPP retrospective when TFT-TEC lands.

Table of Contents

  1. Identification and Significance of the Problem
  2. Technical Objectives
  3. Work Plan, Validation Framework, Risk, and Phase III Vision
  4. Related R&D, HELIOS Innovation, and Phase I Results
  5. Key Personnel and Facilities
  6. Potential Post Applications and Commercialization Plan
  7. Budget Summary
  8. References

1. Identification and Significance of the Problem

1.1 The Translation Gap

Carry forward from Phase I §1.1. No substantive changes. The PROSWIFT framing, the 46 findings / 113 recommendations, the two-named-critical-gaps mapping all hold for Phase II.

1.2 NASA Mission-Operations Slice: SRAG's All-Clear Translation Problem

Carry forward from Phase I §1.2. Update: cite the Phase I kill-gate result (when Sprint D ships per specs/2026-05-18-Sprint-D-kill-gate-spec.md) as the proof point. Reference evidence-package.md §3.5 + §6.

1.3 Precision-Agriculture Slice: The Gannon Case Study — PHASE II ADJUSTMENT

PHASE II ADJUSTMENT — operator action. The Gannon retrospective is upgraded from v1 climatological to v2 real-SPP via the CDDIS adapter once the TFT-TEC forecasting work lands (specs/2026-05-18-TFT-TEC-forecasting-spec.md). When v2 ships: - Replace the 1,302-station-hour headline with the v2 figure (likely different — methodology changes the computation) - Cite gannon-storm-rtk-analysis v0.2.0 instead of v0.1.0 - Update the TEC peak observation (currently 55.1 TECU synthetic) with the real-CDDIS value - Preserve the climatological-v1 disclosure in a "Phase I retrospective" footnote (do not strip) - Cross-reference evidence-package.md §3.4

The substantive narrative — install-base concentration, dollar-quantified disruption, IA/IL/IN/OH corridor, market sizing at $12.9 B 2024 with 15% CAGR — carries forward unchanged from Phase I §1.3.

1.4 Concept of Operations

Carry forward from Phase I §1.4. Update: the CONOPS is stakeholder-approved in Phase II (Phase I §2 Obj. 5 success criterion) — cite the LoIs in letters/ when filled.

2. Technical Objectives — PHASE II ADJUSTMENT

PHASE II ADJUSTMENT — operator action. Phase II objectives advance from TRL 3-4 feasibility to TRL 5-6 operational prototype. The five Phase I objectives become five Phase II objectives with new success criteria reflecting operational thresholds (CCMC proving-ground evaluation, OEM partnership commitments, 99.9% API uptime, field validation across 5-10 precision-ag operations during the 2028 planting season).

Objective 1 — Operational Multi-Source Ingestion (TRL 5)

Phase II refines Phase I Obj. 1 from "automated ingestion of ≥6 sources" to production-grade operational ingestion at 99.9% uptime with full feature-level provenance on helios-spaceweather-connectors v1.0.

Success criterion: 99.9% uptime over the 24-month Phase II period; <5 min median end-to-end latency (down from Phase I's <15 min); deployed on AWS with automated failover; CCMC-compatible API contract validated.

Objective 2 — Real-Time Calibrated Fusion at Operational Scale (TRL 5-6)

Phase II refines Phase I Obj. 2 from "calibration validation on the pre-registered set" to real-time operational fusion with live model retraining. The kill-gate result from Phase I (see evidence-package.md §6 when populated) is the predicate.

Success criterion: TBD — operator-driven based on kill-gate outcome. If Phase I kill-gate PASSES H1+H2 → Phase II commits to maintaining reliability-diagram slope within 0.10 of 1.0 across all severity strata in operational stream. If ablation-paper outcome → Phase II commits to the documented honest reduction.

Objective 3 — NASA Mission Operational Integration

Phase II refines Phase I Obj. 3 from "all-clear-revocation prediction on the 10-event hold-out" to prototype integration with M2M SWAO and SPoRT for operational evaluation. Cite nasa-engagement/ records when filled.

Success criterion: prototype deployed to ≥1 NASA-center operational-evaluation environment; SRAG threshold compatibility validated against ARRT downstream; M2M SWAO operational analysts complete a structured evaluation cycle.

Objective 4 — Precision-Ag OEM Telematics Integration

Phase II refines Phase I Obj. 4 from "GNSS degradation ensemble validated on Gannon + 3 hold-outs" to pilot OEM integration during the 2028 planting season with ≥1 of Deere Operations Center / AGCO Fuse / CNH AFS Connect. Cite letters/ag-industry-loi-*.pdf when filled.

Success criterion: TFT-TEC operational across the 0-24 hour horizon; v2 Gannon retrospective shipped (see §1.3); ≥1 OEM telematics integration deployed in pilot mode; field validation across 5-10 precision-ag operations.

Objective 5 — Phase III Commercialization and Stakeholder-Approved Operations

Phase II refines Phase I Obj. 5 from "≥2 NASA-relevant + ≥2 commercial LoIs + Phase II commercialization plan" to Phase III commercialization plan + Phase II SaaS production deployment. Cite commercialization-plan-refined.md.

Success criterion: ≥3 paying customers in pilot tier; ≥1 OEM revenue-share agreement signed; production-grade SaaS at 99.9% uptime; Phase III commercialization plan with named investors or strategic partners.

3. Work Plan, Validation Framework, Risk, and Phase III Vision — PHASE II ADJUSTMENT

Phase II executes over 24 months across five concurrent tasks (T1-T5) aligned with the new objectives. The task structure mirrors Phase I's T1-T5 framing but extends each task to a 24-month timeline with operational milestones.

T1 — Operational Ingestion at Scale (Months 1-12, sustained ops Months 13-24)

T2 — Real-Time Calibrated Fusion Engine (Months 1-12, sustained ops Months 13-24)

T3 — Operational Translation Modules (Months 4-18)

T4 — Production API, Dashboard, and Operational Validation (Months 6-24)

T5 — Field Validation, OEM Pilots, and Phase III Commercialization (Months 1-24)

3.1 Pre-Registered Validation Framework (updated)

Carry forward from Phase I §3.1 + add Phase I kill-gate result citation when Sprint D ships. The pre-registration discipline carries forward verbatim. Cite the v1 → v2 methodology evolution (Sprint C-Training v2 review pack at ../specs/2026-05-17-Sprint-C-Training-v2-review-pack.md) as evidence of demonstrated rigor.

3.2 Risk Assessment and Mitigation (updated)

Carry forward from Phase I §3.2 risk table. The "Validation event cherry-picking" row is now Likelihood: Low (mitigated and demonstrated) — change from Phase I's "Low (mitigated)" — because the v1 → v2 evolution proves the pre-registration discipline survived a real methodology surprise.

3.3 Phase II Execution Plan — PHASE II ADJUSTMENT

PHASE II ADJUSTMENT — operator action. Phase I §3.3 ("Phase II Vision") becomes Phase II §3.3 ("Phase II Execution Plan") — replace the "vision" framing with concrete deliverables. The seven sub-bullets (a-g) from Phase I §3.3 each get a Phase II-specific milestone date, owner, and acceptance test. Reference: - The evidence-package.md for what Phase I delivered - The commercialization-plan-refined.md §A for the five Phase I learnings that shape Phase II execution - This document's §6 for the Phase III vision (formerly Phase II vision)

4.1 Current State of the Art

Carry forward from Phase I §4.1. Refresh: cite any peer-reviewed publications appearing between Phase I submission and Phase II submission that change the SOTA framing.

4.2 What Is Innovative About HELIOS

Carry forward from Phase I §4.2. The five innovations (model-agnostic decision-calibrated fusion · provenance-aware architecture · dual-use translation · equipment-aware GNSS prediction · industry-native output) all carry forward. Update each to cite the relevant Phase I shipped artifact URL — see evidence-package.md §2.

4.3 Phase I Results — PHASE II ADJUSTMENT (NEW SECTION)

PHASE II ADJUSTMENT — operator action. This is a new section that did not exist in the Phase I proposal. It heavily cites the evidence-package.md URLs. The new section is the single highest-leverage Phase II proposal addition — reviewers ask "what did you actually deliver in Phase I?" and §4.3 answers in one page.

Structure: - §4.3.1 Public-portfolio deliverables — cite evidence-package.md §2 with each of the 5 public Pages sites + the 4 public repos + the 1 private companion - §4.3.2 Citable ground-truth observations — cite evidence-package.md §3 with each of the 5 Gannon ground-truth observations (Kp peak · Bz peak · TEC peak · 1,302 station-hours · kill-gate result) - §4.3.3 Community engagement and standards work — cite evidence-package.md §4 (RFC-0001) - §4.3.4 Methodology evolution — cite evidence-package.md §5 (Sprint C-Training v1 → v2) - §4.3.5 Peer-reviewable artifact — cite evidence-package.md §7 (arXiv preprint when submitted)

4.4 577 Industries Relevant Experience

Carry forward from Phase I §4.3 (now renumbered to §4.4). Add: HELIOS Phase I as the most recent SBIR Phase I execution, delivered in 6 months with the public portfolio at evidence-package.md §2.

5. Key Personnel and Facilities

5.1 Key Personnel

Carry forward from Phase I §5.1. Refresh: replace "named candidates identified" with named-with-LoIs when letters/ml-engineer-loi.pdf and letters/sme-consultant-loi.pdf are signed.

5.2 Facilities and Equipment

Carry forward from Phase I §5.2. Update: AWS production-grade deployment costs for 24-month operations (vs. Phase I's prototype scale).

5.3 NASA Center Engagement

Carry forward from Phase I §5.3. Refresh: replace "Target validation-framework benchmarking" framings with demonstrated engagement when nasa-engagement/ records are filled. If LoIs from NASA centers land, cite them in letters/nasa-center-loi-*.pdf.

6. Potential Post Applications and Commercialization Plan

Reference: commercialization-plan-refined.md — Phase I learnings → Phase II strategy refinement. This section in the Phase II proposal pulls heavily from that document.

6.1 Beachhead Market: U.S. Precision Agriculture

6.2 Revenue Model

6.3 Go-to-Market Strategy

6.4 Phase III Expansion Verticals

Phase II §6.4 covers what Phase I §6.4 called "Phase II Expansion Verticals" — autonomous-vehicle GNSS integrity · geospatial surveying · satellite drag prediction · parametric space-weather insurance. Phase II makes these fundable Phase III work, anchored on the Phase II operational prototype.

6.5 NASA Mission Applications Beyond SRAG

6.6 Competitive Positioning and IP Strategy

7. Budget Summary

Carry forward Phase I §7 structure, scaled to the Phase II ceiling and 24-month period of performance. Categories:

  • Direct Labor (PI, ML Engineer, additional Phase II hires)
  • Fringe Benefits
  • Subcontract (SME consultant continuing; possibly additional)
  • Cloud Computing (production-grade AWS for 24 months)
  • Travel (NASA centers, OEM partner sites, ag-industry conferences)
  • Materials and Software Licenses
  • Fee / Profit
  • TABA Request (if eligible at Phase II)

Subcontracting must remain below the SBIR Phase II 50% cap (NFS 1852.219-80). PI primary employment with the small business preserved per NFS 1852.219-83. All work in the United States.

8. References

Carry forward Phase I §8 references [1]-[32]. Add Phase II-specific additions:

Phase II adjustment checklist (for operator review)

The dispatch spec calls for these four specific Phase II adjustments — confirming each is flagged in this scaffold:

  • §1.3 Gannon retrospective → cite v2 real-SPP analysis when TFT-TEC lands
  • §2 Phase II success criteria reflect TRL 5-6 operational thresholds (CCMC proving-ground evaluation, OEM partnership commitments, 99.9% uptime)
  • §3.3 Phase II "vision" → Phase II "execution plan" (replace vision framing with concrete milestones)
  • §4.3 NEW "Phase I results" section citing the evidence-package URLs heavily

Cross-references